Special Report on Expectancy

One of Dr. Tharp’s clients begged him not to talk about expectancy in his courses and programs—it’s that much of an edge. Yet most people look for systems with a high probability of winning, which is totally different. For example, you can have a method that is right 80% of the time that still won’t make money. Why? The reason is because the gains are small and the losses are large. A lot of people are attracted to such systems, but they will usually result in financial disaster. Instead, Dr. Tharp’s programs offer you real ways to develop a positive expectancy system.

Expectancy is how much you can expect to make on the average over many trades. Expectancy is best stated in terms of how much you can make per dollar you risk. 

This downloadable pdf format report has 40 pages. 

Contents:

Positive Expectation: Mandatory for Success

This article covers the basics of expectancy and expectation, using games and graphs to show how to apply both to real life situations.

The Law of Expectation: The Psychological Side

Dr. Tharp discusses the importance of personal psychology and its relation to expectancy.

Expectation: Under the Covers

Detail expectancy discussion in an actual trading system. This article includes charts and graphs relating to the expectancy of a long-term trend-following system.

The Psychology of Trend Following

Emotional and psychological aspect of trading a trend following system, including graphs denoting common mistakes made in this type of system.

Six Keys to Investment Success

Dr. Tharp communicates the six main keys to successful investing through a snowball fight metaphor, and covers why each key is important on its own and to the group as a whole.

Reviewing the Basic Principle of Successful Trading: Positive Expectation

This article is compromised of information on the mathematics and beliefs of expectancy, and includes an example of Dr. Tharp’s famous Marble Game.

 

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Last revised: June 17, 2008